After six months of data collection and three months of data analysis, the President of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari, announced the results of the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) in March 2019. Costing approximately US$ 100 million and covering more than 200 000 people, 185 survey teams collected data for the NAIIS, the largest HIV-specific survey in the history of the global response to the epidemic.

In Nigeria, three types of survey have been conducted by the Federal Ministry of Health HIV/AIDS Division to determine HIV prevalence and to monitor the trends of the HIV epidemic in the country:

• The HIV Sentinel Survey (HSS), which is conducted typically every two to three years among women attending antenatal clinics, which determines HIV prevalence among pregnant women.
• The National Reproductive Health Survey (NARHS), which is conducted every five years among the general population.
• The Integrated Biological and Behavioural Surveillance Survey (IBBSS), which is mostly used to monitor prevalence and behavioural trends among key populations.

The last HSS and IBBSS took place in 2014, while the last NARHS took place in 2012. These data sources have served as the main survey data sources for the AIDS response in the country.

Between 2012 and 2014, significant progress was made in the AIDS response in Nigeria. The number of antiretroviral therapy sites doubled, prevention of mother-to-child transmission sites increased eightfold and HIV counselling and testing sites increased fourfold. According to government data, 6.7 million adults were counselled and tested for HIV in 2014, a 65% increase from the previous year. HIV testing among pregnant women also doubled in 2014 compared to 2013. Similarly, the number of people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy increased significantly.

However, despite this progress, there was no commensurate improvement in the statistics on the coverage of antiretroviral therapy among people living with HIV. National achievements in the AIDS response were poor compared to the targets, and programme implementers reported difficulties in identifying people living with HIV in need of services. It was therefore suggested that the HIV burden was not as high as was estimated using the available HIV prevalence data.

Former UNAIDS Country Director Dr Bilali Camara was a longstanding advocate for an expansion of the surveillance of the country’s epidemic.

“Working as UNAIDS Country Director in Nigeria, I realized early on that we did not have the full picture of the country’s AIDS epidemic,” said Dr Camara. “I was pushing for surveillance to be expanded for a long time―I am very happy that with this new survey we now have a better understanding of the AIDS epidemic in Nigeria and that it will allow us to better respond to the areas and people in most need.” 

Dr Camara’s persistence indeed paid off.

In July 2015, the National Agency for the Control of AIDS (NACA), under the leadership of its then Director-General, Professor John Idoko, decided that it was imperative to better understand Nigeria’s HIV epidemic. The NACA set up a National Stakeholder Committee, comprising the head of the National AIDS and STI Control Programme, the UNAIDS Country Director, the World Health Organization (WHO) representative, the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) Coordinator, civil society and others, which decided to conduct a triangulation of data from various sources.

“The need for the survey was first initiated under my leadership, but we had overwhelming support from Dr Camara. UNAIDS headquarters was even willing to send its Strategic Information Director to Nigeria at the time,” said Professor Idoko.

Many countries have shifted to a location–population approach, which helps to ensure that HIV services reach the people and geographic areas with the greatest need. Location–population approaches require granular-level data, which were not typically available in Nigeria. In 2016, the UNAIDS Nigeria Strategic Information Team, led by Dr Gatien Ekanmian, was tasked to develop an evidence-informed methodology to estimate the HIV burden at the local level. During this process, a closer analysis of the results from the various surveys highlighted a series of issues with the HSS surveys:

• The sentinel sites were too limited in number to ensure nationally representative geographic coverage based on the demographics of the country.
• Urban sites were oversampled.
• Rural sites were usually under-sampled.
• There were often more urban sites than rural sites in many states, thus the HSS results reflect more the urban HIV epidemic than the rural epidemic among pregnant women.

The conclusion of the UNAIDS Nigeria epidemiological analysis was that the HSS and NARHS were no longer giving sufficiently precise epidemiological information. It was recommended that a comprehensive review of the HIV surveys being conducted in Nigeria be carried out in order to address the shortcomings in the existing survey approaches and methodology. 

Thereafter, the UNAIDS country office met with various stakeholders, including the Development Partners’ Group on HIV, and presented these observations and recommendations, effectively utilizing the Development Partners’ Group on HIV to galvanize support from PEPFAR and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) in particular.

In June 2016, the Director-General of the NACA raised an objection to the latest estimate of 3.5 million Nigerians living with HIV, believing that the figure was an overestimation. He had the opportunity to discuss his concerns with UNAIDS country directors, Dr Erasmus Morah and Dr Alti Zwandor at the International AIDS Conference in Durban, South Africa, in 2016. In July 2016, after advocacy from the UNAIDS country office, the new Minister for Health, Professor Isaac Adewole, and the new Director-General of the NACA, Dr Sani Aliyu, agreed on the need for an epidemiologically robust population-based HIV survey in Nigeria. They approved the recommendations for a population-based survey and committed to mobilize resources for it.

“When I resumed as Director-General of the National Agency for the Control of AIDS, a recurring issue that came up at every introductory meeting with partners was the difficulty in finding new cases. It was obvious that there was a problem with case-finding. Was this because we were looking in the wrong places? I had doubts on the quality data we had … and we can’t achieve epidemic control if we don’t even know where we are. Hence, the number one priority of my administration was born―establishing the true prevalence of HIV in Nigeria by employing the best scientific and technical survey tools available in the shortest possible time,” said Dr Aliyu.

In November 2016, a review and triangulation of HIV data in Nigeria was commissioned by the NACA, in collaboration with UNAIDS, the findings of which gave further support for a national survey to develop more precise estimates of HIV prevalence. Firm support for the survey came from the Government of the United States of America (the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, PEPFAR, USAID and the Department of Defense) and the Global Fund, which committed funding to the NAISS.

“It was easy to see that getting the data situation in Nigeria right was not only the right thing to do but also the dream of so many people. Fortunately, Nigeria had great partners to help turn this dream into reality. Programming and accounting for HIV results in the country will never be the same,” said Dr Morah, the current UNAIDS Country Director for Nigeria.

The United Nations system’s contributions in the NAIIS Technical Committee were anchored by UNAIDS, WHO and the United Nations Children’s Fund. Before the results of the survey were announced, Peter Ghys, UNAIDS Director of the Strategic Information Department, led a multi-group technical mission to Nigeria. The team gave advice on the use of the survey results, on the trends and the geographic locations of the epidemic, at the national and subnational levels. They also gave technical guidance to national partners on data management and governance, including on a strategy for country ownership and leadership of the survey results and support on how to communicate the changes in the epidemiological profile of HIV in the country.

“The road to NAIIS is a wonderful and brilliant story to tell, because it actually tells the story of the HIV response in Nigeria,” said Professor Adewole.

This feature is adapted from an article written by Erasmus U. Morah, Gatien K. Ekanmian and Doris, A.Ogbang