Immediate Risks or Disruptions

1. Stockouts:
   • Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP): The HIV Program Unit of the Ministry of Health has only a four-month supply of PrEP remaining. However, The Global Fund authorized them to use remaining funds to purchase PrEP.
   • The USAID PASMO project, which implemented PrEP through private clinics, has not returned; they have only been authorized to work on offering self-testing.
2. Service Capacity:
   • HIV Testing & Treatment: antiretroviral therapy provision continues, but facilities are operating at reduced capacity.
   • HIV Prevention Services: Reduced capacity is affecting key populations such as gay men, sex workers, people who use drugs, and transgender people.
   • At the moment, the greatest impact is on prevention, as only 11 of the 30 promoters who supported doctors in initiating PrEP for key population users in the VICITS clinics have been rehired. Therefore, their workload has been overloaded by assigning them three VICITS clinics per promoter.
   • Comprehensive HIV Care Clinics: Projects supporting 20 out of 24 clinics were reinstated, allowing the return of 90% staff, including doctors, laboratory staff, pharmacies, data entry clerks, and community liaisons. The care and treatment areas are recovering despite the impact of the three-week pause that led to more than 1,200 antiretroviral therapy dropouts.
   • Human rights, key and vulnerable populations: All programs on stigma and discrimination have stopped affecting key populations, adolescent girls and young women, and people living with HIV.
3. Civil Society Organizations (CLOs):
   • CLOs are experiencing significant challenges, including service reductions or suspensions, staff losses, and funding cuts, which limit their ability to advocate for key issues. Additionally, their capacity to collect and report data has decreased due to a lack of funding for monitoring activities. As a result, many CLOs face the risk of closure or severe reductions in services.

Politically Relevant Updates

1. Government and UN Coordination:
   • UNAIDS conducted an early assessment and has been continuously updating it, presenting the impact to the UN country team.
   • A country-level task team is in place, with representation from REDSAL (a network of people living with HIV) and Colectivo Alejandría (representing key populations).
2. Funding and Support:
   • The USAID Global Health Supply Chain Program Procurement and Supply Management (PSM) resumed operations, providing support for supply chain projections and management.
   • The Data for Implementation (DATA.FI), funded by USAID in collaboration with Palladium and the Department of Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins returned to assist with data analysis in the case registration system.

Immediate Risks and Disruptions

PEPFAR Programme Delays:

• PEPFAR PrEP delivery to 2,500 people among key populations, mainly men who have sex with men, was canceled. However, as of 14 March PrEP provision services for key populations (MSM mainly) have been re-established and the MoH has taken over distribution.
  • Human resources and transport for viral load samples at ARV clinics provided by PEPFAR were canceled, affecting several cities:
    • Panama City: 8,100 people
    • Colón: 1,300 people
    • Pacora: 300 people
    • Ngäbe-Buglé population: 1,400 people, where HIV prevalence is high.
  • HIV commodities: Stocks available with minimal disruption.
  • Prevention of vertical transmission (PVT) and pediatric HIV services: No services affected.
  • HIV prevention: Disruptions in access, reduced capacity for HIV prevention services, including HIV counseling and testing, primarily affecting sex workers, men who have sex with men, and transgender people.
  • Condom promotion and demand generation activities: Impact noted on public sector, social marketing programs, NGOs, and community distribution.
  • Data collection: Continues at some facilities and service points, along with some data quality control and collation.
  • Study suspension: The suspension of a study on recent HIV diagnoses and the halt in laboratory sample transportation have further limited essential diagnostic and monitoring services
  • All programs on stigma and discrimination have stopped, affecting key populations. Communities have collected data on human rights issues, including increased stigma and discrimination.
  • Disruptions noted in HIV prevention programs affecting particularly men who have sex with men, sex workers and transgender people

Service Disruptions:

Politically Relevant Updates

1. Government Actions:
   • The Panamanian government began expanding friendly services to key populations to absorb the demand for PrEP that US funding was covering.
   • Adjustments were made to ARV services to temporarily cover the human resources provided by US funding, however, this impacted the quality and timeliness of service provision.
2. Civil Society Impact:
   • Community-based organizations (CLOs) are struggling but have alternative funding sources; however, they have noted a reduced ability to participate in policy discussions.
3. UN Response:
   • A country-level task team has been established but does not include representatives from people living with HIV and key population networks.
   • UNAIDS is collecting information from PEPFAR partners but has not received clear responses due to canceled field worker contracts.

Immediate Risks and Disruptions 

• Service Closures: US-supported facilities and international NGO-run services have shut down. Some antiretroviral therapy service facilities have closed, and there is no clear referral system in place.
• Supply Chain: antiretroviral supplies, HIV test kits, viral load tests, other lab tests, and male and female condoms are available with minimal disruption to distribution. However, condom stock levels are unavailable or not tracked.
• Service Disruptions: PrEP and HIV testing services have been disrupted. Prevention of vertical transmission and pediatric HIV services remain unaffected. 

Civil Society Impact and Response 

• CLOs: Community-led organizations (CLOs) face a reduction or suspension of services and have limited ability to advocate for key issues. Despite struggles, some CLOs have alternative funding sources. 

UN Response 

• Mitigation Actions: The UN country team has been engaged in actions to mitigate the impact of the USG shift. UNAIDS coordinated PEPFAR implementing partners to assess the impact. 

Stock Levels and Immediate Risks

• Stock Levels: A recent national stock-level assessment indicates that there are at least two months of stock at facilities and five months at central warehouses. This is consistent with normal operations, and no immediate risk of stockouts is anticipated. New shipments are expected in April.
• Service Disruptions: Some communities-based service delivery points are facing serious service interruptions, and there are currently no plans for referrals to other facilities. . Community HIV testing for the general population and key populations (KPs) has been significantly impacted due to disruptions in the community health workforce. Specialized wraparound services at over 80 One-Stop Shops have been disrupted in one way or another due to funding freezes. Disruptions in services for orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) may impact children living with HIV. 

Relevant Updates

• Government Actions: The Nigerian government has taken proactive steps to address potential AIDS funding gaps, particularly in response to the suspension of US-funded programs. The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved N4.8 billion for procuring 150,000 HIV treatment packs under the 2024/2025 HIV Program Alignment. The government is also strengthening national systems, securing local financing, and engaging the private sector, including plans to establish an AIDS Trust Fund.
• Healthcare Workforce: The Government is collecting information about the health care workers that have been impacted by the funding freeze, with the intention to determine the critical number and skillset of workers in each state to be recommended for absorption into the public health workforce. One of the states, Rivers State, recently recruited 1,000 healthcare workers, absorbing some who were affected by the funding freeze. The Network of people living with HIV is leading efforts to map the impact on the community health workforce, with a Ministerial Task Team reviewing findings and proposing state-level interventions.
• Community and Civil Society Response: Community-led and peer-led services is mostly supported through the Global Fund and has continued, those PEPFAR-funded components have been interrupted due to "stop-work" orders issued to PEPFAR Implementing Partners. Many partners have yet to communicate updates to community workers, despite directives in the February 4th Memo from the US Government. Some implementing partners, such as Heartland Alliance, which supported over 20 One-Stop Shops for Key Populations, have received official contract termination notices from USAID, with no clear transition plan for their services.
• Resilience and Adaptation: Despite these challenges, the community and civil society organizations have shown resilience. For example, about two-thirds of community workers who received "stop-work" orders in January/Early February have been recalled following the February 4th Waiver Memo from GHSD. Additionally, national acceleration efforts to prevent vertical transmission of HIV continue to scale up across all states under Global Fund funding, relying on public health institutions and Global Fund-supported community health workers.

Summary of Key Assessment Findings

The task team has been meeting at the governmental level, with UNAIDS supporting the Federal Ministry of Health and the National AIDS Council DG, who co-chairs the task team. 

Summary of key assessment findings:

1. Community Workforce: Over 95% of community workers received "stop-work" orders, but about two-thirds have been recalled.
2. ARV Access: Immediate access to antiretrovirals remains stable but testing and case-finding activities have stalled significantly. Investments by the Government of Nigeria and the Global Fund in the National PMTCT Acceleration Plan has however supported continued scale-up of PMTCT testing and treatment. 
3. ARV Stock Pipeline: The pipeline for 1st-line ARVs remains strong, with over six months of stock available. New shipments are expected to continue, but distribution challenges may arise.

Crisis Response Plan: The newly inaugurated AIDS, TB and Malaria TWG, has been tasked to leading the convening of critical stakeholders to set-up crisis response plans at national and sub-national level, with clear communications channels for reporting service delivery disruptions. The committee has conducted a preliminary gaps analysis which informed the approval of a supplementary budget of about $200 million.